News from November 23 to November 29
Iranian nuclear scientist assassinated, Netanyahu flies to Saudi Arabia, and honorable mentions
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Top Iranian nuclear scientist assassinated outside Tehran:
What happened? Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, dubbed the “father” of Iran’s nuclear weapons program by Israel and Western intelligence services, was killed in an ambush on Friday. Though no country or group has officially taken responsibility for the assassination, Israel is widely believed to be behind the killing. According to the New York Times, Fakhrizadeh has long been a target of Israel’s Mossad. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif tweeted that the early indications suggest Israel was involved in Fakrizadeh’s death.
Who was Mohsen Fakhrizadeh? He was a scientist who the United States and Israel believe was a critical part of Iran’s previous nuclear weapons development. Officially, Fakhrizadeh was an academic, but American intelligence services identified his role in academia as a cover for his nuclear weapons activities. Fakhrizadeh was also important during the negotiations for the Iran deal because Iran refused to let international inspectors interview him and his team. He was reportedly so central to Iran’s effort to develop a nuclear weapon that Western intelligence sources have compared him to Robert Oppenheimer, who led the United States’ Manhattan Project in the 1940s.
Okay, but what actually happened? How was he killed? (Warning–potentially gruesome details) Two main stories have been circulating. The first, published by Fars news agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claims that Fakhrizadeh was killed by a remote-controlled machine gun stationed on a vehicle a hundred meters away. When the first car in Fakrizadeh’s security convoy pulled away to inspect the destination, a gunman or the remote-controlled weapon shot at Fakhrizadeh’s vehicle. Thinking the car broke down, Fakhrizadeh got out of his vehicle to check for damage. At that point, Fars claims that the remote-controlled gun shot at Fakhrizadeh, causing lethal wounds. Afterward, the vehicle with the remote-controlled weapon is said to have exploded.
The second story reportedly comes from Iranian sources and suggests that a 12-person hit squad killed Fakhrizadeh. According to the sources, the Israelis knew the details of Fakhrizadeh’s security detail because they hacked the IRGC. The hit squad allegedly detonated a car bomb, stopped the convoy, and shot numerous rounds into the vehicles. They also claim that the commander of the group personally retrieved Fakhrizadeh from the car and killed him.
Some security analysts have cast doubts on the first narrative due to the precise locations of the bullet holes in Fakhrizadeh’s window, but we will probably never know what actually happened. Ultimately, how it happened is far less important than why it happened.
If Israel did do this, why did they do it? There are a couple of theories. For one, Israel has identified Fakhrizadeh as a critical part of Iran’s nuclear program for years. In 2018, after Israel captured an archive of Iran’s nuclear activities from Tehran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a public presentation where he described Fakhrizadeh as the leader of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which Israel maintains is ongoing. Accordingly, Israel may have killed Fakhrizadeh to try and stall Iran’s nuclear program just as the United States killed Qassem Suleimani in an attempt to reduce Iran’s regional terror activities. It’s worth noting that many question the efficacy of this approach because leaders can be replaced, and it might embolden the undesired behavior.
Source: Amir Cohen/Reuters
Some have also suggested that Israel killed Fakhrizadeh to make it harder for President-elect Joe Biden to rejoin the Iran Deal. They argue that it will goad Iran into a military response, complicating Biden’s efforts to engage in diplomacy. Even if Iran does not respond because it wants to negotiate with Biden, Israel will have eliminated one of its top targets without any immediate reprisal. However, as former diplomat Dennis Ross noted, these types of operations take extraordinary resources to plan and actionable intelligence to carry out. Consequently, the assassination may have been more tied to an opportunity than to politics. It could very well be a combination of both.
Anything else? Israel issued a travel warning for the UAE and Bahrain after the assassination of Fakhrizadeh. Israeli defense officials are reportedly worried that Iranian reprisal might target Israeli tourists in the Gulf states.
Further reading:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55118140
Netanyahu reportedly meets with Saudi Crown Prince in Saudi Arabia:
What happened? Early last week, Netanyahu reportedly flew to the Neom, Saudi Arabia, to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. During the meeting, Netanyahu, MBS, and Pompeo are believed to have discussed regional developments with Iran and potential Saudi normalization with Israel. Though the Saudi Foreign Ministry denied the meeting, an Israeli government minister confirmed that Netanyahu did fly to Neom to speak with MBS.
Why now? Biden.
Notably, the trio does not appear to have reached any agreements or had any breakthroughs. The Wall Street Journal reported that though MBS is interested in normalizing relations with Israel, he sees establishing diplomatic ties as a promising way to curry favor with the incoming Biden administration. I’ve mentioned this before; If Saudi Arabia does want to normalize, it makes much more sense to wait for the new Democratic administration which has already stated that it welcomes Arab normalization agreements with Israel. You should not be surprised if a few months into the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia and Israel announce a normalization agreement. What’s more, Israel is likely headed to an election around March, so a massive diplomatic agreement with Saudi Arabia (and potentially more Arab countries) before the election would undoubtedly boost Netanyahu.
What about Iran? Isn’t that what they talked about? Yes! Iran is the other piece of the puzzle. Due to the common threat of Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia should be natural strategic partners. The two countries have reportedly cooperated for years, though the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has prevented overt relations. However, by brokering the Abraham Accords, the Trump administration has upended the traditional Middle East paradigm that Arab countries cannot have relations with Israel until a long-term solution is reached with the Palestinians. Accordingly, some have suggested that this semi-covert meeting was a way to signal a joint Israeli-Saudi stance against Iran. Others have gone so far as to propose it could have been a prelude to a significant military attack on Iran. The former is more likely; President Trump has made his aversion to war clear, so it would be surprising if he launched a military strike on Iran during his last days in office.
Anything else? It’s worth noting that Saudi Arabia’s King Salman does not support normalization until there is a Palestinian state. However, MBS is the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, and there were even reports that King Salman was unaware of last week’s meeting taking place. It will be interesting to watch if King Salman’s objections remain an obstacle to a Saudi normalization deal.
Prediction (educated guess/no insider information): Keep an eye out for a mid-February/March normalization agreement, if it happens. I don’t like to speculate, but if I were a betting man, I’d bet that Netanyahu aims to have elections on the latest possible date (sometime in March) to give some time for the new administration to take over before announcing a normalization deal. That way, Saudi Arabia can score points with Biden, and Netanyahu would have a significant achievement during his campaign.
Further reading: https://www.thejc.com/comment/analysis/netanyahu-s-secret-saudi-meeting-was-designed-to-be-made-public-1.509029
Honorable Mentions:
“Supreme Court strikes down New York’s COVID restrictions on synagogues” by Shira Hanau (JTA)
“Biden nominates Alejandro Mayorkas, Latino Jew who has said Jews face heightened threat, as Homeland Security secretary” by Ron Kampeas (JTA)
“Biden to tap Janet Yellen as first woman to lead US treasury” (ToI)
“In tapping Blinken, Biden will be served by confidant with deep Jewish roots” by Jacob Magid (ToI) I highly recommend watching this clip of Blinken talking about his Holocaust-surviving step-father’s rescue by Americans:
“Rashida Tlaib accused of anti-Semitism for reaction to Biden's Jewish Sec of State nominee” by Joseph A. Wulfsohn (Fox News)
“Your Jewish guide to the Grammy nominations” by Seth Rogovoy (Forward)
“Big second half carries Israel to comeback win over reeling Spain” (FIBA)
“Emirati royal in talks to buy stake in Beitar Jerusalem soccer club” by Cnaan Liphshiz (ToI)