Hello everyone! This one is going to be a doozy. Apologies on the funky date range. I’m still working through all the kinks and I’m trying to normalize the dates to be from Sunday to Sunday. As always, if you have any comments, questions, or concerns, send them to newsofthejews@gmail.com.
Election results indicate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in trouble:
What do I need to know before you tell me about the election results? The Knesset has 120 seats. As I have described in previous newsletters, a candidate requires the support of 60 other members of the Knesset (MKs) to become Prime Minister. There are two primary “blocs” (groups of parties aligned around one Prime Ministerial candidate) in this election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leads the right-wing bloc and supported by mostly right-wing and religious voters. Retired IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz leads the center-left bloc and is supported (to varying degrees, but more on that later) by centrist, liberal, and Arab voters.
What happened? The election results indicate that Netanyahu’s party, Likud, will probably have 31 seats in the Knesset. Blue and White, the party led by Gantz, will likely have 33 seats, the largest of any party. Just because Gantz got the most votes, however, does not necessarily mean he will be the new Prime Minister. Remember, a candidate needs to get the support of 60 other MKs. The latest estimates suggest that Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc has about 55 seats and Gantz’s center-left bloc has about 54.
What else? One of the biggest storylines of this election has been the high voter turnout among Arab-Israelis. The Joint List, an umbrella party composed of the major Israeli-Arab parties, picked up an additional 3 seats since the April elections for a total of 13, making it the third-largest party behind Blue and White and Likud. Accordingly, it will play a significant role in coalition negotiations. Another important development is the success of Yisrael Beiteinu, Avigdor Liberman’s party, which will hold 8 seats in the Knesset.
That’s all? Not even close. Yesterday, the Joint List (without one of its constituent parties) announced that it would recommend Benny Gantz to President Reuven Rivlin for Prime Minister. This marks the first time that the Israeli-Arab parties will nominate a Prime Minister since Yitzhak Rabin 27 years ago. As I noted in an earlier newsletter, the Israeli-Arab parties do not typically recommend a Prime Minister because they object to the normalization of the occupation of the West Bank and poor conditions for Israeli-Arabs, among other reasons. Their nomination of Gantz shows how passionately they want to see Netanyahu out of office. You also may have noticed that the total number of seats in both blocs doesn’t add up to 120. This is because one of the parties in the Joint List and Liberman’s party will not endorse anyone for Prime Minister. Liberman has called for a unity government which would include both Blue and White and Likud. Creating such a coalition will be difficult since Blue and White has said they will not sit in a coalition with Likud as long as Netanyahu is still leading the party. Making things even more complicated, Liberman’s party is against working with the ultra-religious parties and/or the Israeli-Arab parties. Accordingly, it will not sit in a coalition made up of the current right-wing and center-left-wing blocs. Unless Liberman changes his mind, Likud and Blue and White will have to compromise or go to a third round of elections.
What’s next? President Rivlin will decide who gets to attempt to form a coalition first this week. As of Sunday evening, Blue and White apparently wants to let Likud try to make a coalition first, which is a risky, but potentially rewarding proposition. Netanyahu might be able to pull together a coalition, but if he cannot, there will be increased pressure on other parties to give in to Blue and White’s coalition demands to avoid another round of elections.
What are the possibilities going forward? (listed by my take on their likelihood)
Unity government with Blue and White + Likud with Gantz and Netanyahu rotating as PM. Gantz may have to do this. It would be a massive betrayal to his voters who see him as the only viable alternative to Netanyahu, but it might be the only way to put an end to Netanyahu’s political career.
Unity government with Blue and White + Likud with PM rotating between Gantz and a Likud MK. It’s possible, but Likud MKs will have to be convinced to dump Netanyahu.
3rd round of elections
Center-left government with Blue and White + Yisrael Beiteinu + liberal parties and Israeli-Arab support with Gantz as PM. This permutation can only happen if Gantz convinces Liberman to abandon his push for a unity government.
Right-wing government led by Likud with + right-wing/religious parties + the Labor party with Netanyahu as PM. It’s not out of the question because the Labor party has sat in a right-wing coalition in the past, but they have stated they will not this time.
Right-wing government led by Likud with + right-wing/religious parties + Yisrael Beiteinu with Netanyahu as PM. It’s possible because the Liberman’s party used to be a part of the right-wing bloc, but he could have joined the coalition last time and instead forced a new round of elections.
Minority government led by Blue and White + liberal parties and Israeli-Arab support with Gantz as PM. It’s unlikely because President Rivlin has stated he wants a stable government and this would be very unstable.
Centrist government led by Blue and White + liberal parties + religious parties with Gantz as PM. The math is about the only thing that works in this coalition.
There are other permutations, but these are the ones that the media are discussing the most. Regardless, if this election has demonstrated one thing, it is that Netanyahu appears vulnerable.
Further Reading: https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/israel-election-results-benjamin-netanyahu-coalition-negotiations/ (National Review)
Update on Minnesota Synagogue Fire:
What’s new? Last week, there was outrage about a Synagogue burning down in Minnesota because police did not treat it as a hate crime. Well, it looks like the police were right. Apparently, the fire was started by a homeless man who was looking for shelter in the synagogue’s Sukkah. When the structure of the Sukkah caught on fire, he fled the scene. Police are saying that there is no indication that he was targeting Jews.
Further Reading:https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2019/09/15/year-old-synagogue-burned-ground-police-say-theyve-arrested-man-arson/ (Washington Post)
The Israeli national baseball team qualifies for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics:
Mazel Tov! This is a pretty big deal. It’s the first time that Israel has qualified for the Olympics in baseball. It’s also the first time that Israel has qualified for the Olympics in a team sport since 1976. They beat South Africa, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands to qualify. Only six (!) teams will participate in the baseball competition in Tokyo next year. We last saw Team Israel slugging home runs in the 2017 World Baseball Classic where, although they didn’t win, they had a wild Cinderella run (which even had a documentary made about it).
What’s next? It remains to be seen what the roster of the team will look like come Olympic season for a few reasons. Primarily, the qualifying tournament took place during the MLB season, so there were no active MLB players on the roster. You may be thinking, “there are Israeli baseball players in the MLB?” The answer to that is “not really.” In the World Baseball Classic, players are allowed to play for a country if they are eligible for citizenship in that country. This rule certainly helped Israel since all Jews are technically eligible to become citizens, so the team was almost entirely Jewish Americans. The Olympics tend to be stricter and may only allow Israeli citizens to play for Israel. We’ll have to see. If World Baseball Classic rules apply, you could see MLB stars like Joc Pederson, Ian Kinsler, Alex Bregman, and others play for Team Israel.
Further reading: https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-israel-qualifies-for-olympic-games-in-baseball/ (Times of Israel)
L’Shanah Tovah to the Jewish readers!
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