News from October 14th to October 20th
Israeli elections, Bahrain conference, and Elijah Cummings
I hope you had a great weekend! As always, if you have any comments, questions, or concerns, please send them to newsofthejews@gmail.com
Israeli election update:
Does Israel have a government yet? Nope. But this week has the potential to be exciting!
What has happened so far? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc has more seats than Benny Gantz’s center-left bloc, so he was “given” the mandate to attempt to form a coalition first. If that just sounds like word salad, check out the elections part of this newsletter. Neither candidate looks like they will be able to form a coalition at the moment since neither one has a clear path to the support of 61 MKs. Accordingly, the only choices at the moment appear to be a unity government, which would include both Netanyahu and Gantz’s parties in the coalition (likely), a minority government led by Blue and White (unlikely), or a third election.
Since Netanyahu was given the mandate to form a coalition, he has been trying to convince Benny Gantz to join him to no avail. There are many obstacles to a unity coalition. For one, Netanyahu’s pending indictment is an issue since Gantz campaigned on the premise that he would not sit in a unity coalition if Netanyahu is indicted. Another problem is Netanyahu’s insistence that the right-wing religious parties sit in the unity coalition. The views of the religious parties are unpalatable for center-left and left-wing parties. It’s safe to say that coalition negotiations would be much easier if Netanyahu were willing to form a government without the religious parties.
Okay, so where are we now? Essentially, we are in a holding pattern until someone breaks. Netanyahu’s mandate “expires” on October 24th, so unless he can convince Gantz to fold before then, the mandate will shift to Gantz. A few days ago, Netanyahu announced a compromise deal, which was promptly rejected by Gantz. The most significant part of the compromise proposal was that all parties in the coalition could veto any legislation that affected matters of religion and state. The implication of that deal is that one of the fiercest policy debates in Israel—whether or not the ultra-religious should have to serve in the military—would remain undecided. For context, the reason Israel had the second round of elections was that Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party wouldn’t sit in a coalition with the ultra-religious parties because they wouldn’t agree to serve in the military. Right now, the ultra-orthodox do not have to serve in the military as long as they are students in a Yeshiva religious school. Netanyahu’s compromise would effectively maintain the status quo, so it’s fair to question whether or not this is even a compromise.
Another reason Gantz rejected the deal is that, in Blue and White’s opinion, it doesn’t handle Netanyahu’s indictment properly. The deal proposes that if that Netanyahu is indicted, he would take a leave of absence and transfer most of his responsibilities to Gantz, who would be the Vice Prime Minister. Gantz prefers that he would become the full, traditional Prime Minister if Netanyahu is indicted.
Most of all, Gantz rejected the proposal because he will be given the mandate after Netanyahu fails to form a coalition. By waiting to compromise until he has the mandate, Gantz gains bargaining power. After Gantz’s rejection, Netanyahu will have to reject any offers Gantz proposes. In that scenario, if Israel has to go to a third election, Gantz can blame Netanyahu’s unwillingness to accept his deal.
The bottom line is that Netanyahu’s “compromise” is hardly a compromise at all. He would still get the controversial policies he cares about (no ultra-orthodox conscription) without really losing anything if he is indicted (Gantz wouldn’t become the full Prime Minister). The proposal doesn’t represent any significant “loss” for Netanyahu, but Gantz would be giving up a lot of ground on the issues important to center-left voters.
Update: Since the time I wrote this newsletter, Netanyahu has returned the mandate. President Rivlin will likely give Gantz the mandate on Wednesday.
Further Reading: https://www.jpost.com//Israel-Elections/Netanyahus-offer-to-Gantz-manipulation-or-compromise-604945 (JPost)
Israel will send an official to a security summit in Bahrain:
What’s going on? Israel will participate in a conference aimed at countering Iran this week. As I noted in a previous newsletter, Israel announced that it was working on a non-aggression pact with some of the Gulf States. While it may have seemed like notable news, there is already a great deal of behind-the-scenes cooperation. The non-aggression pact was significant not because it indicated that Israel and the Gulf States would work together, but because they would work together publically. Israel sending an official to a conference in Bahrain marks the first example of the new public cooperation since the non-aggression pact announcement. Ultimately, you shouldn’t read too much into it because many of the Gulf states are still pretty hostile to Israel, and this is another example of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
Further reading: https://www.axios.com/israel-us-maritime-security-meeting-bahrain-5491d955-02a1-483b-888b-3596fb4f9e20.html (Axios)
United States Representative Elijah Cummings passes away:
What does that have to do with Judaism/Israel? Cummings (D-MD7) was a huge proponent of better relations between African Americans and Jews as well as a supporter of Israel. Following his passing, many Jewish groups like AIPAC, AJC, and the ADL made statements expressing their gratitude for his advocacy of civil rights and the African-American-Jewish relationship. Israeli ambassador to the United States Ron Dermer also tweeted his condolences to Cummings’ family. Among the many impressive accomplishments of his lifetime, Cummings started an initiative called the Elijah Cummings Youth Program, which sends African-American teens from Baltimore to Israel. The program is a two-year fellowship that involves leadership development, community service, and summer in Israel to build open-minded leaders.
Further reading: https://www.jweekly.com/2019/10/17/rep-elijah-cummings-who-built-bridges-between-african-american-and-jewish-communities-dies-at-68/ (Jewish News of Northern California)
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