News from December 30-January 5
Suleimani, Israeli election update, and an NYC march against antisemitism
Happy new year! I am going to have to change the date/time I publish News of the Jews because of my schedule this semester, so it will likely be either Sunday night or Monday morning. Keep an eye out for it. As always, if you have any comments, questions, or concerns, feel free to reach out at newsofthejews@gmail.com
Iranian General Qassem Suleimani killed in a United States airstrike:
Disclaimer: There is obviously a ton to say about Suleimani, but I am going to stick to how it affects Jews and Israel.
Background: On Thursday night, The United States carried out an airstrike that killed Iranian General Qassem Suleimani at an airport in Baghdad. Suleimani was the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force, which is responsible for military and intelligence efforts outside of Iran. Under Suleimani’s leadership, the Quds force enabled Iran to project power into Syria, armed Hezbollah, and supported the efforts of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Suleimani’s efforts are said to have caused the death of hundreds of Americans and Israelis.
What impact did he have on Israel? During Suleimani’s time as the head of the Quds Force, he oversaw Iranian entrenchment in Syria by building military bases and propping up Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. In Lebanon, he was responsible for arming Hezbollah with precision-guided weapons. He also oversaw the financing of PIJ in Gaza and the training of its soldiers. Geographically, it means he has worked to surround Israel (PIJ in the west, Hezbollah in the north, and Syria in the northeast) with groups that are either directly under Iranian control or are closely aligned with Iran. Suleimani created a situation where, if Israel were to get into a violent conflict with Iran, Israel would have to defend itself on at least three fronts.
Israel did not sit idly by while Suleimani was expanding Iranian influence in the region. It has responded to Iranian entrenchment in Syria by striking over 1000 Iranian or Iran-aligned targets over the past couple of years. To the west, Israel killed PIJ military commander Baha Abu Al-Ata in November and eliminated many PIJ military positions in Gaza during a flare-up that resulted in over 450 rocket attacks into Israel. In Lebanon, Israel has exposed terror tunnels and largely thwarted Iran and Hezbollah’s precision-guided missile project using targeted airstrikes. Israel’s actions to mitigate Iran’s sphere of influence near its borders have largely been successful; the relatively limited number of casualties in recent years is not the result of Iranian pacifism, but Israeli intelligence and military superiority.
It has long been speculated that Suleimani was on Israel’s “hit list” of individuals who posed a huge risk to its security. Yet, despite allegedly having an opportunity in 2008, Israel did not kill Suleimani. Explaining why, an Israeli military officer said, “It was clear the implications could be much greater than a localized war, the repercussions could affect the whole world.” Israel very clearly wanted Suleimani dead, but the United States repeatedly refused to support an operation to kill him because it feared a massive escalation in the Middle East.
How does the Suleimani killing affect Israel? Even though Israel has long sought Suleimani’s death, not everyone is celebrating. At the same time that Israeli politicians across the political spectrum were commending the United States for killing Suleimani, Israeli national security officials were meeting to brace for potential Iranian retaliation. The Iranian regime sees Israel as both its political arch-enemy and an extension of the United States. Thus, many are worried that Iran will choose to retaliate against the United States by attacking Israel, especially since senior Iranian officials have suggested that attacking Israel would be an appropriate punishment for US actions in the Middle East. An Iranian attack against Israel could look like one (or any combination) of the following:
A cyber-attack on Israeli critical infrastructure
Precision-guided missile attack from Hezbollah on Israeli military targets
A PIJ missile barrage from Gaza
A “killer drone” attack from Syria
If an attack does occur, I believe that it is unlikely to be a missile barrage from Gaza. There are too many factors that could increase the costs for Iran. For one, Hamas won’t want PIJ lobbing rockets into Israel and kicking off a new military conflict. In recent months, Hamas and Israel have been working towards a long-term cease-fire. If Hamas permits PIJ to launch an attack from Gaza, all bets are off on an agreement. Of course, there is always the possibility that PIJ launches an attack without the blessing of Hamas. However, any sustained barrage would likely result in a massive retaliation from Israel, which is not in Hamas’ or PIJ’s interests right now for many reasons. This is a really complicated issue and I am happy to elaborate further (on Iran’s options or anything else), but I want to keep this read manageable. Feel free to reach out to me.
In any event, though the United States issued a travel warning for Israel and the Palestinian Territories, Israeli security officials believe that the likelihood of Iran attacking Israel is low. Specifically, Israeli security analysts don’t believe Iran will attack Israel because it “would bring more enemies [onto] the battlefield.” Instead, many believe that Iran will retaliate against American military bases and continue to engage in covert action to create a unified Shia front against the United States and Israel across the region. Still, that didn’t stop Israel from temporarily closing down Mt. Hermon, a northern ski resort, and calling numerous security meetings in the past few days.
Does killing Suleimani help Netanyahu? You bet. Netanyahu benefits from any events or actions that make him look strong. In this case, he got an enormous gift from President Trump; one of Israel’s top enemies was eliminated without Israel having to assume all the risk of doing it by itself.
Perhaps more importantly, Netanyahu has campaigned on his great relationship with President Trump. Now, after President Trump crossed Israel’s #1 most wanted off the list, that relationship looks even more valuable. Netanyahu was even reportedly briefed on the strike days in advance, which means he likely knew about it before senior members of Congress. That being said, Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have been distancing themselves from the attack, likely to avoid further provoking Iran. Expect that to continue in the short term, but don’t be surprised if Netanyahu mentions Suleimani when he boasts about his relationship with President Trump in advance of the March election.
Further reading: https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Targeted-killing-a-boost-for-Bibi-analysis-613157 (Jpost)
Israeli election update:
Does Israel have a government yet? Nope.
Background: In Israel, if a Member of Knesset (MK) is facing charges, they can pursue immunity by calling a vote in the Knesset House Committee. The implication of the immunity process is that the MK would not have to face trial as long as they are still serving in the Knesset. An MK can seek immunity if the crime was committed while carrying out their function as a lawmaker, the indictment was issued in bad faith, the crime occurred in the Knesset and the Knesset punished the MK accordingly, or if the results of the trial would prevent the Knesset from functioning.
At first glance, you might want to compare Knesset immunity to Presidential impeachment in the United States. Avoid doing so because they’re not quite the same. In President Trump’s case, the House decided to charge the President with two impeachable offenses and the Senate will conduct a trial based on those charges. However, in Netanyahu’s case, the indictment was issued by the Attorney General and the Knesset will decide if Netanyahu has a compelling reason not to face charges right now.
What’s new? Netanyahu officially requested immunity from prosecution. As you may recall, he was charged with bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. His move was immediately criticized by Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, who urged voters to see the upcoming election as the choice “between the kingdom of Netanyahu or the state of Israel.”
Will he get immunity? Probably not. To gain immunity, Netanyahu would need the support of 61 MKs. He is unlikely to get that many seats because the head of Yisrael Beiteinu, Avigdor Liberman, whose party has enough seats to tip the Knesset balance in favor of Gantz or Netanyahu, announced that he would not support Netanyahu’s immunity bid.
If Netanyahu won’t get immunity, why did he ask for it? If Netanyahu had not requested immunity, the trial would begin immediately. By seeking immunity, the trial will have to wait until the Knesset finishes its immunity proceedings. Since the House Committee, which basically cannot be formed until Israel has a government, debates immunity, his trial cannot begin until at least after the next election. This way, Netanyahu gets to avoid frequent news about his trial dropping during his reelection campaign. It’s a tactically smart move, but it might set off a constitutional crisis. Can Netanyahu legally assemble a government if he is an indicted MK without immunity? Alternatively, if Netanyahu does get immunity, what if it is challenged in court on the basis that Netanyahu doesn’t meet the criteria for immunity? The Israeli courts will be busy this year.
Further reading: https://www.vox.com/world/2020/1/2/21046745/benjamin-netanyahu-immunity-request-knesset-elections (Vox)
Thousands gather in NYC for a Jewish solidarity march:
What happened? On Sunday, thousands gathered in Brooklyn for a rally, both to protest the recent spate of antisemitic attacks in New York City and to show solidarity with the Jewish community. As you may recall, there was a surge in violent antisemitic attacks in the New York metro area in December, including the Jersey city shooting and the Monsey stabbing attack. Mayor Bill de Blasio, Senator Chuck Schumer, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, and Governor Andrew Cuomo attended the march, in addition to many congresspeople and local government officials. At the rally, Governor Cuomo announced that the state will provide an additional 45 million dollars for security at religious institutions.
Further reading: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/nyregion/anti-semitism-solidarity-march-nyc.html (NYT)
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