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Israel headed to another election:
Background: As you may recall, Israel’s government was on life support due to prolonged disagreements between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz. I have written about this before, so feel free to skip this section, but for those who do not recall, here is a brief explainer about what has been happening in Israel:
Netanyahu is a highly divisive figure in Israel. On the one hand, he has painted himself as an indispensable leader who delivers significant foreign policy and national security achievements. Netanyahu has been around for decades (he is Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister), and Israelis know what they are getting when they vote for him. On the other hand, critics often suggest that his legal troubles (he has been indicted on multiple counts of bribery) prevent him from putting Israel’s interests above his own, and many feel it is time for fresh voices in Israeli politics.
Israel’s government has essentially been paralyzed for the last two years as a result of pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu polarization. Back in 2019, Netanyahu faced his first significant challenger in years in Gantz and his ideologically-broad Blue and White party, which ran on an anti-Netanyahu platform. The first two elections proved inconclusive because parties that would ordinarily sit in a government with Likud (Netanyahu’s party) refused to join a coalition led by Netanyahu. At the same time, Gantz could not form a government because the remaining anti-Netanyahu parties were too ideologically diverse to form a stable coalition. Only after Israel’s third election in April did Gantz betray his main electoral promise and join Netanyahu’s government. Even then, the two leaders had to form an uncomfortable compromise to establish the government.
According to their coalition deal, Netanyahu was set to rotate the premiership to Gantz in November 2021. Gantz was also supposed to become the Prime Minister if the government collapsed for any reason other than an inability to pass a budget for 2021 by December 23, 2020. Since Likud held the finance portfolio in the government, it could decline to present a budget and collapse the government with Netanyahu remaining in power. For months, Netanyahu used the budget to extract concessions from Gantz–whose party significantly dropped in popularity after joining Netanyahu’s government–in exchange for postponing the deadline. That brings us to last Tuesday!
What happened? Israel’s parliament voted to dissolve itself after failing to reach an agreement on the 2021 budget by Tuesday night’s deadline. Netanyahu and Gantz appeared to have agreed to a compromise on Tuesday which would have postponed the deadline in exchange for limiting the Justice Minister’s (Blue and White MK Avi Nissenkorn) powers. However, three Blue and White MKs and one Likud MK voted against the bill, cementing the new set of elections. The vote will take place on March 23rd.
So there will be elections. What else happened? Several Likud MKs have already left Likud to join former Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar’s new party called “New Hope.” Among them was a well-known senior Likud MK named Ze’ev Elkin (Likud’s negotiator during its coalition negotiations with Blue and White), who said this during his resignation speech:
“We won’t join Netanyahu in any form [in a coalition], because his personal interests are guiding his decisions. And that makes it [Netanyahu’s leadership] dangerous. Netanyahu feels persecuted, he suspects everyone, the atmosphere is one of a cult of personality… of flattery. This is precisely what we want to change.”
Ze’ev Elkin. Source: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90
Who are the candidates to be Prime Minister? There are no candidates in the American sense of the word since Israel is on a parliamentary system. The leader whose party receives the most votes may have the easiest time forming a government, but since they must first bring parties together to form a coalition, any party leader can theoretically form a government if they get the support of enough MKs. Having said that, the most realistic options appear to be Netanyahu, Sa’ar, or Yamina’s Naftali Bennett, all of whom are right-of-center. Recent television polls have Likud around 28 seats, Hew Hope around 20 seats, and Yamina around 15 seats.
What about the Left-wing or Center-left parties? Gantz’s decision to join Netanyahu’s government fractured what was left of the center-left, leaving the clear majority of Israel’s electorate favoring right-wing parties. None of the current center or center-left parties have significant support, except for Opposition Leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, which is sitting around 16 seats according to the same polls. Gantz’s Blue and White barely eked past the Knesset threshold at around 5 seats.
Anything else? The election season will definitely be eventful: Israel is entering its third national lockdown and is preparing to mass distribute the COVID-19 vaccine. The evidentiary phase of Netanyahu’s trial will begin in February. More countries may decide to normalize relations with Israel. President-elect Joe Biden will be inaugurated. The United States might rejoin the Iran deal. There will be a lot to say about the upcoming election, and I will definitely cover it as there are developments. Stay tuned!
Honorable mentions:
“Experts predict what Israel can expect from new administration” by Israel Kasnett (JNS)
“Israel aims to vaccinate 25% of population in a month; 250,000 had shots so far” (TOI) (Meanwhile, Israel is vaccinating its population at one of the highest rates in the world)
“NY investigating Orthodox-run health clinics that may have ‘fraudulently’ obtained COVID-19 vaccines” by Shira Hanau (JTA)
“Zoom Yiddish class for kids, parents & grandparents” by Rukhl Schaechter (Forward)
“Pakistani court orders release of 4 men acquitted of Daniel Pearl murder” by Cnaan Liphshiz (JTA)
“The Black Jewish leader atop Canada’s Green Party” by Matthew Kassel (Jewish Insider)
“150 House Democrats sign letter backing Biden’s bid to reenter Iran nuclear deal” by Ron Kampeas (JTA)
“Simon Cowell to appear as a judge on The X Factor in Israel” (Jewish Chronicle)
“Massachusetts Republican official says he caught COVID-19 at White House Hanukkah party” by Philissa Cramer (JTA)
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