News from April 12 to April 18
Israeli election update, Israel-Hamas prisoner exchange, and honorable mentions
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Israeli election update:
Does Israel have a government yet? Nope.
What happened? On Monday, just as Blue and White leader Benny Gantz’s mandate to form a government was about to expire, President Reuven Rivlin granted Gantz a two-day extension. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously said the two sides were not close, his revised assessment that a deal was imminent convinced President Rivlin to grant Gantz the extension.
Did they work out a deal during the extension? No.
What happened after they failed to reach a deal? President Rivlin decided not to give Netanyahu the mandate to form a government. Citing a lack of realistic chanced to form a government, Rivlin sent the mandate directly to the Knesset. In other words, Rivlin will allow any MK to form a government. Now, if no MK can form a government in the next 21 days, Israel will go to a fourth election in August. Rivlin’s move was largely seen as a way to pressure Gantz and Netanyahu to reach an agreement.
Why can’t they agree on a deal? The main issue preventing an agreement is Netanyahu’s legal status and control over the judiciary. Regarding the former, Gantz’s and Netanyahu’s proposed agreement would involve a legal agreement that Gantz would take over as Prime Minister if Netanyahu has to step down or if an election is called. If the Israeli Supreme Court decides that Netanyahu cannot serve as Prime Minister while indicted, Gantz would become the Prime Minister. Gantz and Netanyahu are reportedly still working out what to do if Netanyahu is forced to resign. Regarding the latter, the two sides are still haggling over who will appoint judges. After an agreement had been reached, Likud reneged, and talks stalled.
What should I look out for this week? Gantz has threatened to advance legislation that could prevent Netanyahu from serving as Prime Minister. At the same time, Netanyahu has threatened to break off all talks if Gantz acts on his threat. Since the bill will take time to go through the legislative process, Gantz has to begin procedural steps soon. One week from now, we will likely know if Israel is headed to a fourth election.
Further reading: https://www.jns.org/report-gantz-says-he-and-netanyahu-are-on-the-brink-of-a-unity-deal/ (JNS)
Israel and Hamas poised for a potential prisoner swap:
Background: In 2006, Palestinian militants crossed the Israel-Gaza border and assaulted a nearby Israeli military unit. Two members of the unit were killed, one was injured, and one, Gilad Shalit, was captured by the militants. Hamas then took Shalit into custody in Gaza. Although Israel attempted to rescue Shalit, the IDF was unsuccessful at bringing him home.
In 2011, Israel and Hamas agreed to exchange Shalit for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners. Negotiated by German and Egyptian intelligence, the deal featured the highest number of prisoners Israel has ever traded for a soldier. Many of the Palestinians swapped in the agreement were serving multiple life sentences for their involvement in terror attacks. In total, the released prisoners were responsible for the deaths of 569 Israelis. After the 2014 kidnapping of three Israeli boys, Israel re-arrested many of the prisoners exchanged in the Shalit deal.
Gilad Shalit returning to Israel. Reuters.
What’s happening? There is increasing confidence that Israel and Hamas will reach an agreement on another prisoner swap. Hamas is currently believed to be holding Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, two Israelis that crossed into Gaza and were taken into custody. Hamas also posses the remains of Israeli soldiers Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul. Human rights organizations have especially criticized Hamas for its detention of Mengistu and al-Sayed because they reportedly have severe mental health conditions.
In recent days, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has expressed a willingness to negotiate on a prisoner exchange. Reports suggest that Israel and Hamas have been communicating through Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov as well as Egyptian and German intelligence. Specifically, Haniyeh said he would be willing to trade “information” about its Israeli prisoners in exchange for 250 soldiers. To engage in negotiations over the release of the Israelis in Hamas custody, Haniyeh suggested that Israel must release the prisoners it re-arrested following the Shalit deal.
What would the deal be? Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, is said to be angling for a trade that would take place in stages. The first stage would reportedly Israel releasing young Palestinian prisoners as well as sending Hamas ventilators to deal with the Coronavirus crisis. Sinwar was among the prisoners released in the Shalit deal.
Why now? The Coronavirus crisis has opened a window of opportunity for Israel and Hamas to work out a deal. Israel and Gaza share a common problem in protecting Gaza from Coronavirus. As Gaza is one of the most densely populated places in the world, it is especially susceptible to an outbreak. Hamas sees a prisoner exchange as a means to acquire medical assistance from Israel. Though some have mentioned that tying humanitarian aid to political agreements is ethically questionable, others see it as a rare opportunity for the two sides to make progress on stalled talks. For what it’s worth, the prisoner issue is one of the major obstacles for a long-term cease-fire arrangement between Israel and Hamas. Resolving it now could enable the two sides to come to a lasting agreement.
Further reading: https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-said-to-propose-prisoner-exchange-deal-with-israel/ (TOI)
Honorable Mentions:
The World Jewish Congress will be holding an online Yom HaShoah Commemorative Ceremony today at 11:00 a.m. This will be the first year that there will be no in-person commemorative ceremonies to honor Holocaust victims.
After two high school students in Minnesota mocked Jews sent to Auschwitz in a TikTok video, they were assigned a research paper titled “Hitler’s Final Solution at Auschwitz.”
At-home deaths likely related to COVID-19 spike in Jewish neighborhoods in Brooklyn.
Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden welcomes J-Street’s endorsement.
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